Memo from Robert L. Dilenschneider
September 12, 2008
We are about to enter the most important period since the end of the Cold War. With that in mind, and with our compliments, please accept this 37th Trend Report from The Dilenschneider Group.
As you know, we research and write two such Reports annually—the first in September, as operational and budget plans are made for the coming year, and the second in January. Our goal is to bring you fresh thinking, insights, and ideas that you may not find elsewhere. The information is designed to help you in the critical calculations that, as a leader, you must make.
Yes, there is much happening that is positive. Cures for diseases, advances in science and technology that are making life easier and, perhaps most important, a view that is developing among young people that it is time to reshape the social order.
But at the same time, the world is in the throes of wrenching change—economic, ideological, and geo-political. Economies around the world are in a free fall and no one seems to have a fix on when the “slowdown” will end or what shape the new economic order will take. More than 50% of the world’s population still survives on less than $2 a day. While we live in “the global century,” there is less and less cooperation toward a common, aspirational purpose at a moment when we are better connected than ever before. Leaders of previous generations used to lay out what was possible and work toward it. This, unfortunately, is not happening today.
Around the world the expectations of citizens are high, but leadership—politicians, CEOs, NGO chiefs, and others—are doing little to rise to the occasion and address the big issues of education, healthcare, trade, global coordination, climate change, and more. Some countries—most recently, Russia in Georgia—are maneuvering for advantage in unexpected ways. Sadly, the world is in its sixth year of debating what to do in Darfur, where nearly 400,000 people have already been slaughtered.
Instability spreads in Asia. In Bangkok, a shaky democracy has been threatened by thousands of anti-government protesters. In Japan, a seriously divided parliament, reflecting the deep divisions within the country, triggered a surprise resignation by Prime Minister Fukuda. And, in Pakistan, a new President, Asif Ali Zardari, faces a sinking economy, militant Islamists in the tribal regions, and continued strong political opposition.
Meanwhile, Al-Qaeda and the Taliban have re-grouped and intend to create more havoc in the months ahead. Washington has lost the confidence of many people who feel they have no control over their lives and who look bleakly at the future. Yet, it is still possible that new leaders with new ideas will emerge and make a difference.
For this Report, as usual, we conducted hundreds of interviews with leading bankers, economists, academics, politicians, media representatives, figures in the arts, religion, and global security, as well as influential thought-leaders throughout the United States, Europe, Asia, South America, and Australia.
Additionally, we had the privilege, once again, of attending in early September, the annual Ambrosetti Conference in Cernobbio, Italy. This meeting typically brings together some of the world’s leading political, social, and economic thinkers.
In attendance were U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney, José Maria Aznar (former Prime Minister of Spain), Shimon Peres (President of Israel), Cheng Siwei (Vice Chairman, Standing Committee, National People’s Congress—China), Karl-Heinz Grasser (former Minister of Finance—Austria), John Hennessy (President, Stanford University), Christine Lagarde (Minister for Economy, Industry, and Employment—France), Amre Moussa (Secretary General, The Arab League), a large group of Nobel Prize winners; and many other global thinkers.
Coming from this meeting, and appended to this letter, are forecasts that describe the macro-economic situation in many parts of the world.
The overwhelming sentiment expressed by those we talked with was anxiety about the future. Ordinary people, they said, see no bright horizon or welcoming future. Many are scared, living from paycheck to paycheck, if they haven’t already been laid off. Everyone we talked with expressed concerns about pervasive uncertainty and lawlessness in the world and the real fear that the gap between the West and the Muslim world is widening dangerously.
It is in this singularly problematic climate that we offer you our September Trend Report and ask for your thoughtful reaction.
Best regards,
Robert L. Dilenschneider
Embracing Technology is Only Half The Battle,
PR Leader Robert Dilenschneider says.
Succeeding in Business Also Requires Personal Touches
NEW YORK (May 15, 2008) - Staying on top of the latest technology will only get a person so far in their career if they don't supplement it with time-tested communications skills, public relations icon Robert L. Dilenschneider said today during The Conference Board's 2008 Corporate Communication and Technology Conference.
Dilenschneider, founder of the New York-based firm The Dilenschneider Group and a more than 30-year veteran of the PR industry, believes it is important to plug in to as many information sources as possible.
"There is a lot happening out there. All of it involves thought leadership. All of it involves the Web, and unless all of us understand the environment we are in today, and how we can contribute to it and shape it, we will be left in the dust," Dilenschneider said during the Corporate Communication and Technology Conference, held at the Westin New York.
At the same time, Dilenschneider warned, people cannot forget the traditional methods of networking if they want to succeed in business.
"If you look beyond the new rules, you will find the old rules, the enduring ones: It's the ability to be gracious, the ability to be decent. It's the ability to look for a higher purpose. It's the ability to give back," Dilenschneider said. "All those things are values that must be inherent in you or that you must adopt if you are going to be a power player."
Dilenschneider, whose has addressed these topics in his book "Power and Influence: The Rules Have Changed" (2007, McGraw Hill,) said the rules of technology change constantly. "One needs to obtain a perspective - an early warning, as it were - of what's beyond the horizon," he pointed out.
Even when faced with a never-ending flurry of e-mails, Dilenschneider said, it is important to pay attention to them. Dilenschneider told the audience that while on vacation the day after Christmas last year, he opened his e-mail and found links to 17 blogs. Despite his family's protests, he read them.
"I have a three-word suggestion for power players: Read the blogs," Dilenschneider said. "Did I read all 17? No, but I looked at the content of each one, read two, and forwarded two others. Did it help me? You bet. I received information that could have come from no other source."
The exercise, which Dilenschneider said took about three minutes to complete, helped him address issues with two clients and get a new one.
It is vital to embrace this still-emerging technology, Dilenschneider stressed, because it's only going to become more important in the future. He noted that traditional media outlets are laying off reporters, closing bureaus and slashing budgets while their parent companies are on an acquisition binge that embraces all elements of cyberspace.
"The next few years should determine the fate of mainstream, traditional journalism that has served the public for so many years," Dilenschneider said. "It's important to remember that technology never takes a holiday. The rules of power will continue to factor in the seismic changes occurring in all types of industries - mass media included - as a result of technological advances."
"Nonetheless, power players must not overlook the most critical 'power rule' of all: The human element cannot be ignored," Dilenschneider said.
One cannot ignore the need to "check the Internet," "Google a company" or "check your voice mail," but Dilenschneider noted that it takes more than that to connect with people.
"By speaking with people, by communicating with them in writing, by sending a small gift to thank someone for extending himself or herself, you build relationships and networks that will last," Dilenschneider said. "You may know how to network, but it's how you keep the network alive that will be key to your progress."
Putting pen to paper or picking up the phone to have a conversation can have a much greater impact that firing off an e-mail that may or may not get read, Dilenschneider said.
"You can transmit a thought through e-mail, but you cannot truly transmit personal taste, cultural differences and beliefs. People who are accustomed to the use of technology in their lives often think that when they click the button, the job is done, the message has been conveyed, the response has been sent. However, without follow-up and direct contact, you will not get a significant result," Dilenschneider said.
The Conference Board, which sponsored the 2008 Corporate Communication and Technology Conference, is the world's leading business membership organization, with a global network of close to 2,000 enterprises in nearly 60 countries. The Conference Board identified the following 10 major challenges for management, and all involve thought leadership and the Web:
- Sustained and steady top-line growth
- Excellence in execution
- Consistent execution of strategy by top management
- Profit growth
- Customer loyalty/retention
- Stimulating innovation/creativity/enabling entrepreneurship
- Corporate reputation
- Speed, flexibility, adaptability to change
- Top management succession
- Finding qualified managerial talent
The Dilenschneider Group is a corporate strategic consulting and public relations firm based in New York. It has offices in Chicago and Washington, D.C.
